Echoing something I heard on (Canadian) radio…. regarding the point that one goal of the tariffs is to entice manufacturers to relocate to within the USA, creating jobs etc.
In the case of, say, a large automobile parts supplier currently manufacturing in Canada or Mexico, how likely will they be to go through all the hoopla and cost of building factories in the USA and all of the infrastructure that goes with it, in the knowledge that the next US Administration might undo the tariffs?
In order to ensure the immigration of global industry to the USA won’t Mr. Trump have to do whatever it takes to guarantee and ensure his tariff rules can never be undone? And what form might that process take, if possible at all?
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Echoing something I heard on (Canadian) radio…. regarding the point that one goal of the tariffs is to entice manufacturers to relocate to within the USA, creating jobs etc.
In the case of, say, a large automobile parts supplier currently manufacturing in Canada or Mexico, how likely will they be to go through all the hoopla and cost of building factories in the USA and all of the infrastructure that goes with it, in the knowledge that the next US Administration might undo the tariffs?
In order to ensure the immigration of global industry to the USA won’t Mr. Trump have to do whatever it takes to guarantee and ensure his tariff rules can never be undone? And what form might that process take, if possible at all?
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More likely foreign businesses just won’t want to deal with us as much so they’ll look to other markets. China seems likely.
>Will tariffs bring industry into the USA?
No.
They never have before; we have no reason to expect they ever will.
No, I do not think the tariffs will do much to increase domestic production, and I think they will actually dissuade international firms from wanting to do business here.
There’s no rhyme or reason to this. It honestly seems like Trump is just trying to hurt this country and its people in every way he can.
They haven’t in the past and they won’t this time.
Almost certainly not. Even if it created the desire to do so, not guaranteed or likely imo, the factories are gone. They’d have to be rebuilt. People trained. Production started up. There’s an entire interconnected ecosystem of industry that we literally do not have right now. So yeah, Trump’s fucked us over for no gain because he doesn’t understand what trade or tariffs actually are.
No.
Actually, it’s probably going to severely curtail US manufacturing.
Before Trump, the US was seeing something of a manufacturing renaissance. Trump’s tariffs the first time around killed that. Biden tried to breathe life back into it, but this round of tariffs will put a bullet in it.
We’ve been in this merry go round before. Tariffs don’t make US manufacturing better. Quite the opposite. US manufacturers usually just get fucked hard by them.
Here is what seems likely to happen:
A few companies will open plants in the US. Trump will state it’s a win and due to tariffs. (It will not be solely due to tariffs because companies making that big of an investment have multiple factors they are considering). Many will not because the tariffs may go away within 4 years and it takes more than 4 years to build the infrastructure required for many factories.
We will mostly just pay more for damn near everything. Actually, everything. Even goods that are exclusively American made (rare because of input goods) will have to raise prices too because their people need to afford to pay for the inflated prices of everything else.
Unless they were put into legislation, and subsidies were provided to the industries they want to see grow. No.
They need legislation because there’s a high chance that the next president (if dem) will remove the tariffs or lower them, making any investments into the industry a waste of time and money.
Without subsidies, companies may not have the means to enter into the industry in a meaningful amount of time.
A little, sure? But not as much as we need to make it worthwhile.
Besides, the tarriff strategy (if you can even call it that) makes no sense. If you want to utilize them, tarriffs should be applied to developing countries that don’t have effective labor laws, and countries subsidizing their manufacturing markets, to counteract these effects and make domestic production competitive. This blanket tarriff plan is one of worst implemented policies I’ve seen in my lifetime.
But even if implemented, factories are too automated to be major employers now. A factory that used to need 200 employees to run now probably could do it with 50. And so much output nowadays is not tangible (digital output, intellectual property) which is unrealistic to put a tarriff on.
All experts agree it probably won’t. This is coupled with the fact that they’re chasing a dying form of the industry by continually attacking green energy and ceding that industry to China. Usa has ample lithium and could easily compete without significant imports but Republicans kill everything in that area despite technology continually transitioning to renewables.
Tldr; tariffs won’t work and manufacturing jobs will leave the USA because the Republicans are pursuing an outdated model of the industry.
No. Tarrifs are designed to protect existing industry. Not create new industries. The more money a Tariff (aka consumer tax) generates. The less effective it is
We’re not gonna learn how to build LCD screens from scratch and build world class tv sets in tbe next 6 months. We can’t grow coffee and cocoa beans and bananas here at scale due to environment. But we’re all gonna pay more for coffee, chocolate and fruit
No companies are investing billions in building new factories that will be up and running in 2-5 years while then global stock market tanks.
No. It takes years and billions of dollars to re-shore jobs on the order he’s deluded himself into thinking will happen.
What will probably happen is that companies will just charge more, or pay their workers less, or source cheaper (read: low quality) suppliers to offset the impacts of tariffs to their bottom lines.
Meanwhile, consumer debt will go up, credit card delinquency will go up, savings balances will drop, and retirement funds will take a hit.
But don’t worry – we’ll preserve shareholder value in the the end….