I have never in my life seen a politician so willing to both personally cause and own such a huge disaster as this trade war. Yes 2008 was bad, but Bush was already on his way out and Obama was about to start so neither would be effected by the blow back.
This is different. Trump is parading around and doubling down at how great Tariffs are as the American and global markets plunge. The real world effects will take weeks to months to start happening, but when they do, people will squarely point the finger at Trump. Republicans can’t defend this by saying it was sub prime mortgage lending or margin calls from the 1920s. Trump and by extension the entire Republican party, are having to take the blame for this catastrophic fuck up.
So where do Republicans go from here? We are just starting Trump’s 2nd term which means we have a little under 4 years till he gets removed (unless he somehow gets a 3rd term or voting just doesn’t happen anymore). Being the party that purposefully crash an economy has to be devastating at least in the midterms. Since Trump is their singular point of failure, would they actually try to remove him? Then we’d get Vance who would just be another billionaire lackey and would likely continue similar policy as Trump. Yet just image how good it would be for Democrats to do an “I told you so” and blame Trump and Republicans for the next 2-4 years over and over for ruining our economy. They have to be panicking right now.
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I have never in my life seen a politician so willing to both personally cause and own such a huge disaster as this trade war. Yes 2008 was bad, but Bush was already on his way out and Obama was about to start so neither would be effected by the blow back.
This is different. Trump is parading around and doubling down at how great Tariffs are as the American and global markets plunge. The real world effects will take weeks to months to start happening, but when they do, people will squarely point the finger at Trump. Republicans can’t defend this by saying it was sub prime mortgage lending or margin calls from the 1920s. Trump and by extension the entire Republican party, are having to take the blame for this catastrophic fuck up.
So where do Republicans go from here? We are just starting Trump’s 2nd term which means we have a little under 4 years till he gets removed (unless he somehow gets a 3rd term or voting just doesn’t happen anymore). Being the party that purposefully crash an economy has to be devastating at least in the midterms. Since Trump is their singular point of failure, would they actually try to remove him? Then we’d get Vance who would just be another billionaire lackey and would likely continue similar policy as Trump. Yet just image how good it would be for Democrats to do an “I told you so” and blame Trump and Republicans for the next 2-4 years over and over for ruining our economy. They have to be panicking right now.
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Blue wave in mid terms, but not enough to successfully remove him from office, so he will try to rule by executive orders. Otherwise the government will grind to a halt.
There are only two questions about the next two elections (midterms and Pres 28).
Will the elections be free and fair?
Will the Democrats have a supermajority and/or the will to eliminate the filibuster?
There is no world where elections are still fair and the GOP retains a majority. This was true on election night and it remains true. So the real question is whether Democrats get a big enough lead to actually fix things, or merely to stop the bleeding again. The next 4 years look a lot like the last 2 months no matter what, nothing is going to change that. What you see is what we get. The questions worth asking involve the period after that.
I think that the people who support Trump because they like Trump are at this point beyond anything changing their mind, but I think Trump’s success in 2024, and the Republican Parties was hugely influeced by people thinking the economy was doing not great after the pandemic and Trump getting credit for the trend of the Obama presidency that carried on into his term prior to that. I think partisanship is probably significant enough now we’re not going to see another 2008 landslide election, but we could easily have some failry comfortable majorities in the house and Senate by the Time Trump leaves office, and with a little luck we could keep them through the first term and into the second. Past that it’s too hard to predict (I think this is an optimistic but reasonable prediction say 60% confidence).
The downside here is that Trump is burning a lot of Bridges so Democrats might not be able to fix things before they start getting blamed for the mess.
I think the difference between Bush and Trump is that Bush isn’t implying he’s trying to crash the economy and actually treated what was happening as an emergency that needed attention. Whereas with Trump, the calls are coming inside the house and they’re just saying everything is fine, Imma go play some golf.
If the forecast shows Republicans are looking down the barrel of an electoral blowout, they will hasten their attacks on democracy.
there is really only one thing that makes sense, he is in fact a russian asset. so either the republicans wake up to that fact or they join in the ranks.