I know we (USA) import almost all raw materials and many manufactured products, but we pay pennies and the Chinese economy has been booming for the last couple decades. What do they need us for?
I know we (USA) import almost all raw materials and many manufactured products, but we pay pennies and the Chinese economy has been booming for the last couple decades. What do they need us for?
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They would become very poor, and such an action would alienate them from the rest of the western world
They’d be forced to trade more with all the countries that are currently scrambling to find alternatives to trading with the US.
Exports to the US specifically aren’t a huge part of the chinese economy.
At this moment politically they would probably find a lot of trade partners in other nations that the US has alienated and make up a chunk of the relatively small loss.
If China bans shipping to the US, retail shelves in the US would be empty inside 6 weeks, impact on the US economy would be debilitating. The impact on the Chinese economy depends upon how fast the Chinese can find new markets, which will be helped by other countries boycotting US trade. There would be little to no impact on the Chinese government.
Nothing really, China has an incredible production capacity and the only reason Chinese people buy American is for the brand name. Nowadays, that brand name is deteriorating and European brand names are becoming more valuable.
this isn’t the 70s
they have plenty of other trade partners
they may end up looking more stable
the dollar may weaken
The Chinese economy has been booming because great amounts of wealth was being transferred from USA to China through trade deficit. China will comply /negotiate with Trump because they can’t afford not too. If tariffs remain for more than six months, economy will break down and the only thing keeping the leaders in power right now, after Covid lockdown treatment, is the fact that there has been a huge rising middle class there. Without USA wealth transfer, there will be a regime change in China towards a more democratic governmental system. This would be good first step to truly making a cohesive peaceful world, where humanity can work together to steward this planet and explore the solar system.
They would increase their presence in the Western hemisphere and expand their reach right to the USA doorstep. They would replace their trading with us and lock us out in the future.
President Xi seems to have made reducing China’s dependency on US trade a priority as seen with the Belt and Road Initiative. This makes sense from China’s perspective since the two countries often have conflicting geopolitical interests.
Its very complicated.
China would obviously try to find replacement markets in other countries.
But they are already servicing these markets at the moment so the capacity for growth may be limited.
Also
Other countries that export to the US will be looking to expand their other markets. E.G. The EU steel industry is worried that China will try to sell cheap steel into the EU so they will want to stop that, while also wanting to sell their steel into other markets.
The overall result will probably mean that all other markets will suffer a bit while the US will suffer a lot – after the years of uncertainty where everyone suffers.
We are a market but not a huge market for China. America likes to think it’s massive, but 350 million people is not massive. America just has a bit of wealth to throw around. The US represents around 1/7th of all of China’s exports. And they still have their entire domestic market to see into as well. It’s not a tny number, but it’s not going to really harm China to literally cut off everything.
The US would be decimated though. So much product is Chinese made. I design and manufacture industrial machinery, and production would stop dead if China just decided to halt shipments to the US. Chinese parts are so massively engrained into everything that it’s kind of impossible to do business without them.
And it’s not like we can just switch suppliers to domestic. For a LOT of things, there are no US manufacturing equivalents. There is nothing to go to. And it will take years to build factories and ramp up production to meet demands. This is a 5 to 10 year window of time where a LOT of US manufacturing is dead because there are no parts in the US to use.
I’d guess 2/3rds of all US manufacturing companies would not function the instant China stops shipments. There’d be some attempts to source locally, but the reality is so many products would have to change designs entirely to design out parts, functionality, and possibly even shift production to entirely different scopes of products because certain kinds of products might be entirely impossible to make.
A second part of this is maintenance. Equipment and machinery require repairs, and many parts for those repairs come from China. There may be no US equivalents, or an equivalent might need to be custom at 20x the cost. A $100 part from China might become a $10,000 part custom machined in the US just to make your machine run for another 6 months.
China would take a hit short-term, but it would force faster self-reliance and trade shifts. Long-term, the U.S. loses leverage it’s decoupling, not collapse.
It will end up in China’s favor. Moreover, China owns a tremendous amount of our debt; if they decide to call in the markers or stop buying it, we will be screwed.
China imports next to nothing from us, so no harm there on either side. All the other countries they trade with have tariffs, so Chiner can’t make it up there.
It will take a while but the U.S. has everything we need to make everything. We don’t need Chiner, they need us
The same China that willingly murdered 60 million of their own?
The same China that imposed a single child policy knowing full well that parents would murder their newborn if it wasn’t a boy.
The same China that has a 100 year old hangover of embarrassment from the British rule?
They’ll wait us out.
I think one of the consequences for China is it would lose a huge profit margin on some of its products. Americans don’t bat an eye paying say $5 for some cheap trinket at walmart but in say Vietnam $5 is enough money for a person to go out and eat at restaurant for all of their meals for a day.
DOW futures is up, so is asian market! ha ha that is funny.
Chinese consumers don’t spend much, they need foreign markets to keep economy going.
China is only a couple of generations removed from a time when millions of people were watching their families starve to death during the Great Leap Forward, and when college kids were literally beating their professors to death for ideological impurity during the Cultural Revolution. Do you know what China’s primary source of FOREX was at that time? Tsingtao beer. I shit you not. They’re not happy about this trade war but they’re definitely not afraid of Donald Trump either. They’ve seen a whole lot worse and lived to tell about it.
It depends on whether that causes US companies to pull their factories and other operations out of China. That would be a loss of many jobs Market wise, they’ve been expanding around the world. Just by itself, India is a massive market.
we would just war the shit out of them until they trade with us again
Direct China imports and exports to the USA are about 4% of its GDP, but I’m not sure what you mean by ‘cut all trade’ … Can iPhones be build it China and sold in Europe? Can they buy US products through a third party? Can they trade in dollars? What happens to their dollar reserves? etc
It would hurt them a bit for a while but the market is the rest of the developed world is huge (not to mention China’s own domestic market).
Medium term, China is back to being the dominant industrial powerhouse and probably the new tech innovation powerhouse and the US is left behind as it misses out on cheap innovations and is left to live entirely off its own crap.
LOL the account is already suspended.
They can’t afford it.
Their economy would tank Hard.
No tariffs would be paid on chinese imports to the US.
Assuming you meant all trade, imports and exports then china would gave to fund substitute sources for raw materials. For manufactured goods they would drive for import substitution.
China would increase trade to the rest of the world.
USA is 330 millions of consumers, right? That’s a lot, but rest of the world is like 7 billions of customers. China will suffer from trade war with USA, but will not collapse, like some people like to think.
One thing I can’t understand about tariffs, surely, companies will just incorporate them into end customer prices, like they do with other expenses. How it will benefit USA citizens? What are reasoning?
It is looks like additional sales tax imposed on own population.
China would cut itself off from one of the largest markets on the planet.
The problem is China is practically trade proof, they rely less on the US every year. If US trade partners end up siding with China, we made be screwed.
China would go into a deep and prolonged recession. They haven’t been able to get their domestic market to consume goods to the same extent as Americans. They are looking to sell to other nations but the US is the driver of global growth and cant be replaced easily.
The truth is their economy would tank as what drives their entire economy right now it’s real estate and exports/production. Unless there’s enough buyers to buy up their excess manufacturing their prices are going to crash and producers stop producing meaning lost jobs.
To put it into better perspective the average yearly income in the USA is $50-100K where India (sorry don’t have access to Chinese data) which is now more populated then China has an average income of $3000/yr. That means in average Americans have easy now buying power before we even get into currency issues.
China will have nowhere to sell it’s excess product, it’s economy is currently poised for a debt spiral due to their real estate problems, and their unemployment especially among young people is a crisis.
They would suffer major economic impacts losing access to that consumer market.
No more cheap shit like temu.
Just new trade partners. No real “consequences”, other than a transition period.
One less incentive for Xi to NOT invade Taiwan.
The US buys all the stuff. They need other countries to buy the stuff and other countries are not runaway consumerist nations. So they either start a campaign of influence in Europe, wind down manufacturing, or improve the wages in china so its own people can buy the stuff.
I know some of these absolutes are absurdist but this is the general idea.
It’d play into Xi’s hands to build the Great Road he’s been talking about. It’s not just China, but we are being isolated like Russia. Once the rest of the world shifts away from the US, China will be the next trade center.
It will be bad for everyone but particularly ordinary American consumers who will pay more or not have the option to buy cheap(er) goods.
US reputation as a trusted and reliable trading partner now in shambles and may never fully recover.
I believe they’re booming in the last few decades because of trade with the US.
They’re communist but engage in capitalism in particular areas of their economy, and require foreign markets to thrive.
China is on the brink, like much of East Asia, of a collapse of population. They probably can’t handle decoupling from the US economy right now, but they seem prepared to at least make one or two bluffs.
I doubt they’re gonna go fully through with it… but who knows? Maybe they see this as an only opportunity that they’ll have to tough through.
In my opinion China is a productiin powerhouse also the USA would collapse because alot of stuff we currently own or buy is made in China.
Walk through your house find all China products then find all your American products you’ll see what I mean
In shock news, they trade with…The rest of the planet
do they even have dollar stores in africa and russia? what china seems to do is cheap stuff at cheap prices. what makes me nervous is the tech they steal from everyone, then improve it a bit to claim ownership.
Their economy takes a hit but they come out as the new World Leader. Russia is stuck in an un winnable war and the US is self destructing
You are asking Reddit this question? Seriously, everyone on here 1. hates Trump 2. hates America and 3. hates capitalism, do you think you are going to get a well though out non-biased answer?
China and America are very similar – we are both rampant Capitalists. It is easy to sell to America because, for instance, suppose some unscrupulous protein dealers from China sold protein deliberately contaminated with PVC to us, and thousands of pets died. Here they would get a small fine. What happens if they do that in the EU? Massive fines, bans, etc… The same goes for the UK. And that is the problem for China: products aren’t going to be as cheaply made, or exploited by unscrupulous vendors, as they could be in America. Look at most consumer protection on products sold here and you will see they originated in EU regulations and court suits.
They can sell shit here – they can’t sell shit elsewhere.
Nothing, have you see a made in America label on anything you actually need or use
There is one way the US can bring china to their knees. They embargo china on its Middle East oil intake by creating a barrier in the hamas strait thus cutting off 35-40 % of chinas oil intake, of course china would respond but they’d lose militarily. It would only take 3 months for china to be in an absolute world of pain.
not for ching what would it ve for us and a?
USA will be down to their knees. China will survive with rest of world
China needs us more than we need them. There’s little China has or does which couldn’t either be done here in the U.S., our neighbors to the north and south, or heck, almost anywhere which isn’t China. A lot of South Asia is prime for the picking in that regard. I’m not going to get into tariff talk, I just don’t feel like it, but the tariffs will likely accelerate what’s already been happening.
Contrary to popular belief, China’s economy has been struggling for quite some time, and a lot of the “growth” has been from the government going on a construction blitz either directly (infrastructure) or essentially subsidizing the so-called private sector to build stuff. Doesn’t matter what, or to what quality…just build stuff. Think the giant ghost tower blocks that never got finished or occupied, Evergrande, etc. Foreign investment has been drying up quite a bit.
It’s also why China has been doing that whole belt and road project thing. They’ll either profit by having loans paid off, or profit via influence when other nations default on whatever project China built.
Maybe Canada should let Chinese EV in the country with lower tariffs to compete against Tesla. I can’t afford a Tesla but maybe Chinese EV. Wonder what the tariffs are on both vehicles?
They’d have to trade with the 169 other countries in the world.
War
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If China does what you imply then they are taking Taiwan and changing their economy (factories) to a war machine based economy. They would have the capacity to out produce all countries military production. Let’s hope deals are made that brings happiness to all.
China could use this as an opportunity to further their expansion ambitions to more vulnerable countries. This has happened before, with China offering to build entire telecommunications networks for the pacific islands, as they are seen as of strategic importance. This got other countries like Australia scrambling at the time to urge those nations to resist.
They could assist other nations with trade agreements to win rapport, or negotiate some shady terms that support their expansionist ambitions.
Trade isn’t as narrow as you think. There’s all sorts of raw materials, parts, and partially assembled products that go back and forth, sometimes numerous times.
The US does actually have vast resources in some areas, just not all areas.
China already has (and is building more) industrial overcapacity so it will need to do two things to alleviate the impact of US tariffs:
1- Develop other foreign markets, especially Europe;
2- Find a way to increase domestic consumption, possibly by promoting consumer credit.
Expect China’s share of European and Asian trade to grow at the expense of the US as the American worker cannot compete against the massive skilled work for in China that is used to work for much less.
A while ago (I think during the first Trump regime), I saw something that basically said “China thinks 100 year increments, America thinks 140 characters.”
China has been bracing for a change in their relationship with the US, preparing for it for years, and waiting for America to do something stupid. Guess what, we did something stupid. They’ll weather the storm, while Americans suffer, and come out in a better position in the long run.