I live in the Rust Belt city of Buffalo, and every once in a while I will hear people say “the Great Lakes (or Rust Belt) region is going to explode in population in the future due to southern and coastal climates becoming unlivable”. I am highly skeptical of this claim, but I also can’t exactly reasonably reject the statement as false.
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I live in the Rust Belt city of Buffalo, and every once in a while I will hear people say “the Great Lakes (or Rust Belt) region is going to explode in population in the future due to southern and coastal climates becoming unlivable”. I am highly skeptical of this claim, but I also can’t exactly reasonably reject the statement as false.
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There is a logic to it, of course, but both adaptation and shear human perversity need to be factored in.
I don’t believe it’s true, but not because the argument is illogical.
The people aren’t that logical, and the cost of being illlgical here is low enough that it’s what governments will opt to do.
Ex. Rather than moving to places with more fresh water, we will just see more coastal conservative states have massive desalination projects instead.
Rather than moving because the environmental risk is too high, we will simply see conservative states adopt command-style economies and have publicly run home insurance and such.
They’re going to explode due to people wanting to get out of the redneck South run by ignorant MAGAts. I know I’m moving for that reason once my Southern-for-life parents pass away.
I think rust belt cities will see some growth in the near future, if not because of climate change directly, then because of the housing crisis. OP, you are currently living in the hottest housing market in the US.
Yes. It’s already happening in a way. People who have lost affordable access to nature are moving to rural areas in Ohio.
I think that everything is very expensive. I’m hoping to eventually move upstate. Cities like Buffalo are cool and more affordable and somewhat decent infrastructure. It’s alluring to young people. Honestly if I had money I’d buy in Buffalo as an investment.
It’s also getting annoyingly hot and humid on LI.
I lived a couple of summers in Cleveland and Chicago. If I was running from the heat I would go a lot further north.
Global heating doesn’t imply higher temperatures, it’s more hot days. In my area the highs aren’t as high as they were 40 years ago. It rairly gets to 100f; 105+ used to be common in the summer.
Yes. Due either to heat, fires, or flooding, large parts of the South will become essentially uninhabitable. For example, Phoenix is likely to approach or exceed a temperature high enough that people are unable to cool themselves naturally by perspiration, which means that if you spend too long outside or without air conditioning, you just die. We’ve also all seen the hurricanes in Florida, and that will keep happening and becoming more severe. I just hope the federal government has the balls to not bail out Floridians repeatedly and instead tells them to leave or pay for the damage themselves. Same with people who live in high risk wildfire zones in California. They either need to leave or stop asking taxpayers to foot the bill for their bad choices.
If only that was the major concern!!!
All metro areas are slated to double in size by 2050 … that aside… and I think we’ll see something like Kim Stanley Robinson’s sci fi (e.g. New York just keep’n on building higher as the water rises)
Here’s the big picture though… Civilization is tracking with the rapid collapse scenario predicted by Meadows and Meadows (“Limits of Growth” 1979…er… 1976??). We were seeing all the harbingers except population decline until recently… a few years back though, they put a pin in peak population/reproduction.
We have been seeing climate-driven migration (from equatorial regions to high latitudes) globally for some time now. Arab Spring, putting aside that laughable pollyanna moniker, for example. Mohammad Bouzizi did not burn himself because he just wanted to be able to vote his mind. Arab Spring was one of the first, in what will be many, global-scale resource crisis resulting in unrest and migration because the wealthy ruling class refuses to change their ways.
We see it over and over and over again throughout history… The Mycenians, The Guptas, The Tang dynasty, the Mayans, etc…
Civilizations collapse upon the convergence of massive economic inequality and resource scarcity crisis. The wealthy ruling class is loath to change anything or even acknowledge the problem, because it has all been working very swimingly for them. They also believe that they will be insulated from the crisis by their wealth and power. By time they realize the collapse of their civilization is emminent… it’s too late.
We’ve got it worse, because our billionaire tech bros want to hasten the collapse, or at least destroy democracy/government as we know it, and replace it with monarchy/feudalism going on once again (see Dark Enlightenment). They want absolute control of everything and everyone, and to destroy anything that they cannot control. They believe that they are superior beings (they most certainly are not… LOL) , and it is only natural that all the hoopleheads be subjugated.
Fun times we live in!!
The problem now, however, is that our civilization is a global one, unlike the previously collapsed civilizations. The survivors can’t just pack up their shit and go in search of greener pastures.
As for the Great Lakes… they will certainly be increasingly prized as a source of fresh water… but we’re getting back to burning rivers now, so it probably won’t be drinkable water in the near future.
But I don’t think the planet is going to be very hospitable for mega fauna in general for much longer. I’ve been watching the gradual decline of phytoplankton populations for decades now… it may be a blip… but the last five years have seen those annual percentage declines go from 1%-2% too 3%-5% … it doesn’t seem like much, but there’s absolutely no reason to believe that it ain’t going to get worse with increasing thermal stratification of ocean waters.
That’s 70-75% of the planets O2/CO2 cycling… the lungs of the planet. Phytoplankton is also responsible for about 25% of cloud formation… some places wouldn’t get rain at all if it weren’t for marine phytoplankton. I think we’re on the brink of an ecological collapse the likes of which will have us in a new basin of attraction for thousands of years. Mega fauna will not survive it.
But for now… just enjoy as much sea food as you can, cuz it ain’t going to be around for much longer.
Best,
L
People are moving there due to cost of living, not because of climate change. Sure, eventually the coasts will be unlivable, but that’s no one near soon enough to change the course of your life now. A nuclear war is more likely in all honesty.
No major metro in the United States is at risk of this any time soon.
If so, I think it’s still a century out.
It’s one of the largest areas of fresh water in the world.
political climate? maybe. actual climate? absolutely not.
Shit I hope not, I don’t want Texans moving to my state.
sounds like “Immigrants Scary!” targeted to a specific region.
>but I also can’t exactly reasonably reject the statement as false.
Why not? There’s NO magical policy to put people in ANY specific region.
I think they will get modest growth due to cheap housing. However it’s also not a place with huge economic opportunities and it’s still going to snow in the winter and people hate that. The thing is once it starts growing the housing will be more expensive and then growth will slow down.
Doesn’t quite explain the population growth in the sun belt, including rapid growth in the incredibly hot Texas, Florida and South Carolina.
Of course a lot are immigrants from hotter regions south of the US, so maybe they were looking for milder weather.
I think climate refugees are for sure going to be a thing. I don’t know why the rust belt would be the most likely place for them to relocate.
It’s a naive take. Climate change is not just warming – large parts of the mid west are going to see colder winters.
I do think it’s broadly true because the insurance industry can’t afford to not be clear eyed about risks of flooding on the gulf coast or fires in the west.