There’s a non-zero chance Trump does it, and if they do, NATO will collapse. That is why Europe needs to form its own independent defence system, and do it yesterday.
In theory, if Denmark asks for protection then the other NATO members should help it.
In reality though, it’s hard to see it actually happening. Most importantly, it would mean a war between nuclear powers, and one of those powers is being run by an unstable lunatic. Even ignoring the nukes, a war would be devastating for everyone involved. Nobody would win.
My guess is that what would actually happen is the collapse of NATO, the US being ostracised by most of the rest of the West, and Putin being utterly delighted.
Perhaps something like NATO might emerge from the remaining members, but it would be weaker without the US. Eastern European countries would be very worried at this point.
The US would find itself isolated, with only a scattering of authoritarian right wing dictatorships to stand by it. That might work for a while, but eventually a situation will come along where it wants help, and it will struggle to get it.
No, but it would absolutely destroy the reputation of the US. And I doubt it will recover that reputation for decades. This means a huge loss of influence by the U.S, a rejection of U.S culture, goods and services by most of the western world and the emergence of a new European led NATO style organisation with a military power to rival the U.S.
The end result would be devastating for America. A complete loss of political and cultural dominance.
Yes.
Also if the USA attacked, it would trigger Article 8 of the NATO Treaty.
The EU member treaties also include a clause where member states of the EU HAVE to militarily respond to an attack on a EU Member. Which, frankly, is a stronger clause than Article 5
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Realistically, no.
There’s a non-zero chance Trump does it, and if they do, NATO will collapse. That is why Europe needs to form its own independent defence system, and do it yesterday.
Well, most of NATO Firepower consists of the US armed forces. Especially when it comes to power projection overseas.
Also, NATO Command structures are heavily populated by US officers.
I’m not entirely sure the logistics of this will work out.
Another question is whether or not the EU will protect Denmark, the answer to which will vary on the stakes, propably.
In theory, if Denmark asks for protection then the other NATO members should help it.
In reality though, it’s hard to see it actually happening. Most importantly, it would mean a war between nuclear powers, and one of those powers is being run by an unstable lunatic. Even ignoring the nukes, a war would be devastating for everyone involved. Nobody would win.
My guess is that what would actually happen is the collapse of NATO, the US being ostracised by most of the rest of the West, and Putin being utterly delighted.
Perhaps something like NATO might emerge from the remaining members, but it would be weaker without the US. Eastern European countries would be very worried at this point.
The US would find itself isolated, with only a scattering of authoritarian right wing dictatorships to stand by it. That might work for a while, but eventually a situation will come along where it wants help, and it will struggle to get it.
legally we would have to but it would be horrendous.
No, but it would absolutely destroy the reputation of the US. And I doubt it will recover that reputation for decades. This means a huge loss of influence by the U.S, a rejection of U.S culture, goods and services by most of the western world and the emergence of a new European led NATO style organisation with a military power to rival the U.S.
The end result would be devastating for America. A complete loss of political and cultural dominance.
Yes.
Also if the USA attacked, it would trigger Article 8 of the NATO Treaty.
The EU member treaties also include a clause where member states of the EU HAVE to militarily respond to an attack on a EU Member. Which, frankly, is a stronger clause than Article 5