Venezuelans, how do you think the current problems of the country could be solved? What do you think will happen once Maduro dies?
Venezuelans, how do you think the current problems of the country could be solved? What do you think will happen once Maduro dies?
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Venezuela needs to be handed to an EU/UN caretaker government for 50 years to try to eliminate the corruption from the Chavista state and the opposition. Maduro and Co need to be sentenced to death for treason to the Venezuelan nation and for crimes against humanity.
Hopefully Trump takes over and turns it into a Latin American flavored Saudi Arabia.
Absolutely nothing will happen if Maduro dies as there is a kilometers long line of maduro clones ready to succeed him in case something happens to him.
The country’s problem is not the goverment, that’s just the surface of a concerningly deep pool of cultural and societal issues that had been building up during the decades prior to when Chavez first entered the scene.
Venezuela has to be fixed from the bottom up, not the other way around.
Nuke all
2032 asteroid.
That country vibes FUBAR, just like Haiti. It can change, but only if a miracle happens OR if a lot of investment into some sort of cultural reform throughout decades is made.
Only if you reset the military there might be a hope. But it’s not possible unless they see that staying with maduro is no longer useful.
Maduro is not a strong leader like Chavez was. He is the visible head of the Mafia that runs our country. He dies, another idiot ( or worse Diosdado) will assume the presidency.
The problem is that our military became a Mafia. Controlled by enforcers trained by the Cuban regime. They themselves got trained by the Soviets.
Lol Diosdado is more powerful than maduro and has a stronger personality
You have to dismantle the system which sadly runs much deeper than just Maduro. Unlikely to happen without violence since the dictatorship is willing to deploy as much violence as necessary.
I think Venezuela’s only salvation for the country and their people as a whole is being freed by another country, getting taken by force or something
Considering the current scenario, I would guess there’s a 65% chance of transitioning to another dictator. Maduro would receive a monument, someone would take his place, promisse reforms and double down on repression and institutional control. Venezuela is lost. There’s only war left to restore democracy, but no one is up to carry on.
I’m challenging Maduro to a boxing match.
No one is going to mention the sanctions the US impacts on Venezuela?
The US cutting sanctions, Maduro’s political allies die and all high-ranking members die helps
Just make me emperor
All possible scenarios for a somewhat stable future in Venezuela require a large degree of international intervention. Cubans here built a a very effective totalitarian system, where the military, the financial system and the elites are bound to the government by their crimes (with national and international effects), while other, non-institutional and unpredictable actors, such as drug cartels, criminal gangs, guerrillas and international terrorist organizations have large stakes, which they won’t surrender easily, even less without violence or absurdly high compensation.
I see four possible possible escenarios:
1) A Russian-style thugocracy. Total impunity restart with a facelift. Similar to what we have today, but with international legitimacy and support from Russia, China, Iran, leftist European and Western governments and, of course, leftist Latin American and Caribbean governments for the sake of a stability that will only be sustained by fear and repression, and with the excuse of peace and non-intervention.
This scenario would just require some cosmetic changes in order to allow castrochavistas access to international capital markets. There won’t be any actions for their crimes, abuses, while simply receiving their trillions in stolen blood money as perfectly fine, legal money.
Some actors in the international financial sectors would support this scenario enthusiastically, courting castrochavista elites and their middlemen to bring their money to their banks and investment funds. Castrochavismo will clamp down on emigration, limit Venezuelan citizen’s freedom to leave the country as part of their deal with the international community. For average Venezuelans, this scenario will surely bring more poverty, economic and institutional inequality especially in the mid-to-long term.
This scenario would only delay instability a few years. More serious problems would for sure emerge from the fact that international criminal organizations are very powerful and very much involved in the castrochavista political model. However, given that Venezuela was the cashcow for anti-Western movements in the Western Hemisphere, Southern Europe and beyond for decades, and has the potential to be one again in the future, this escenario is likely, I’d say almost certain if Trump’s/Republican term ends soon and democrats take power in the U.S. in the short to mid-term.
3) A castrochavista democratic restart. Maduro is ousted, ideally after negotiations, death and/or free and fair elections, assuming its results are accepted. Castrochavismo would make the country ingovernable and be back to power either by democratic means or using the legal framework they developed to secure their grip on power during the their (so-far) 26-year reign.
This scenario would guarantee that, in six years or less, Castrochavismo will be back in power with internationaly legitimacy and a lot of fresh cash from international loans in the Venezuelan state’s pockets, as well as a safe perspective of 2 or more decades in power in the future.
This scenario is only possible if the military are finally convinced to not only to oust castrochavismo, but to fight the fight that will certainly ensue in the few years thereafter, with castrochavistas as well as their national, regional and international, political, institutional, non-institutional and criminal allies causing turmoil and sabotaging their cashcow country for years with fire and blood.
If the new regime doesn’t take action decisively and brings lots of cash in the short term, it would fail miserably in the mid-term and cause decades of instability.
The Venezuelan government will never be ousted democratically, over the past few months since the sham election the government has been consolidating its grip on power like never before.
In the case that the government is somehow overthrown there are a lot of cultural issues that a new government would need to address.