Kinda as the title says.
And I say “realistic” because obv the ideal end goal is for Russia to leave and all land returned to Ukraine but that… isn’t likely unless a foreign nation steps in and provides manpower of their own. Ukraine right now is barely able to slow the Russian advance, let alone turn it back and actually gain ground. So with a realistic view of the state of the war right now, what ultimately is a realistic goal for Ukraine? What is the goal to keep fighting?
I am wondering this just because I know Trump gets a lot of justifiable hate for trying to force Ukraine at a peace talk table but when I try to objectively look at the state of the war, I didn’t see how Ukraine could realistically actually win. It seems at best they could get a ceasefire.
And as an addendum question, is Ukraine irreversibly screwed at this point? Like, they have lost ALOT of men. Even IF they did eventually say win and drive the Russians back, do they even have enough able bodied men to rebuild? The country has been utterly decimated and they have to essentially rebuild everything from the ground up.
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Kinda as the title says.
And I say “realistic” because obv the ideal end goal is for Russia to leave and all land returned to Ukraine but that… isn’t likely unless a foreign nation steps in and provides manpower of their own. Ukraine right now is barely able to slow the Russian advance, let alone turn it back and actually gain ground. So with a realistic view of the state of the war right now, what ultimately is a realistic goal for Ukraine? What is the goal to keep fighting?
I am wondering this just because I know Trump gets a lot of justifiable hate for trying to force Ukraine at a peace talk table but when I try to objectively look at the state of the war, I didn’t see how Ukraine could realistically actually win. It seems at best they could get a ceasefire.
And as an addendum question, is Ukraine irreversibly screwed at this point? Like, they have lost ALOT of men. Even IF they did eventually say win and drive the Russians back, do they even have enough able bodied men to rebuild? The country has been utterly decimated and they have to essentially rebuild everything from the ground up.
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Push Russia back to its 2021 borders and exhaust their military power.
Oh boy. I’m ready for the downvotes. Here is some harsh truth for you.
The realistic end goal for Ukraine is to cut the loss and sue for peace right now. Key word being realistic. That’s it. No other options.
They’re already snatching boys left and right to be sent to the trenches. Middle aged and old men. There are legitimately videos of them speaking Ukrainian in Telegram. Meanwhile refugees keep flowing out of Ukraine, Russia shows no sign of stopping (no, the usual “Russia will collapse in one more month” isn’t happening – let’s face it, they’re the most insulated major economy in the world right now, and they NEED the war to grow their economy, actually, as Russia haven’t gone into full war economy mode a la WW2 or even us during Vietnam. This is per RUSI a British MoD think tank).
Trump is being Trump. And Europe can’t present a united front to make up for the loss of US intelligence and military aid, nevermind Russian sympathizers like Orban, they can’t even present a plan to equal American contribution. (No Starlink, no AWACS systems that rival us, tiny defense budget &c. so even if they have the will where are all those hardwares gonna come from?) This is the cold hard truth. Without America Ukraine is dead.
Ukraine is stuck between rock and a hard place (Trump essentially wants to turn it into a colony, Russia wants the 4 oblasts they claimed and isolate them from any alliance). They need to pick their poison fast.
If Turkey destabilizes any further, Putin can dismember Ukraine any way he pleases. US or no US, Europe or no Europe.
Xi or Modi might be able to restrain him a little
World War 3.
Yes, its alarmist and I am most likely wrong, but that doesnt stop how I feel.
We are roughly a century past WW1 and WW2 and we are seeing tariffs being enacted. Random new alliances are starting to pop up. I saw that China, S Korea and Japan were discussing an unified front for Trumps plan. Europe is making a lot of noise about doing something. Hell, I saw an article that some Canadian official was discussing if they should have a nuclear program.
Americans are in a Cold Civil War. We absolutely hate each other. Social media has amplified the worst things in life and our elected officials are officially part of it.
I also think we had an administration in over its head without long term planning. Mixed with the declining poll numbers and officially being termlocked means that we will see a more unhinged Trump at some point. IMO, it will be before the next midterms if the poll numbers come back negatively.
They’re demographically fucked, and Russian positions are only getting more and more entrenched. The best they can realistically hope for is something along the current lines of control, with some flavor of neutrality, like Finland during the winter war. The only chance they have is if we put boots on the ground, since we have more soldiers and better equipment, but the US physically cannot flex its full might in the region (even if this administration was willing to do so) because our aircraft carriers are too big to enter the Black Sea (not that we couldn’t do anything, it just wouldn’t be the seal-clubbing we’d expect before fully committing)
Political will is waning as well – a majority no longer care abiut Crimea. Many no longer care about the Donbas. They’re in a tough position because no land can change hands without a national election, but they can’t have a vote during wartime and wartime can’t end without a vote
Ukraine’s goal is to maintain their sovereignty. When Putin invaded, it seemed like a forgone conclusion that Ukraine would cease to exist as an independent nation in a matter of weeks. Instead, they have humiliated Putin. Even if they lose some of the Russian occupied territory, if the war ends with a free government in Kiev, Ukraine will have handed Russia a huge military upset.
Putin shits himself to death in his bed made of dissident skins?
The idea that there needs to be a very specific goal that Ukraine has to achieve otherwise the whole thing is a waste is a misleading framing, which was successfully implanted by pro-Russian propagandists(I’m not saying you’re one of them). Ukraine is defending itself, where will they stop the invaders and how will they prevent future threats? Nobody knows, it depends on how well they fight, how much support they get, etc.
The “what even is the endgoal?” question was relevant let’s say in Afghanistan, where the US was trying to change the status quo – turn the country from a tribal-Islamic governance to a democratic one. In Ukraine, it’s Russia that is trying to change the status quo. Russians should be asking that question. For Ukrainians, the goal is simple – resist the invaders as much as possible.
The alternative to fighting is not a ceasefire. Russia is not ok with a ceasefire, they have the initiative and are moving forward(slowly but still), the only realistic way to make them stop is to increase support to Ukraine to the point where Russia fails to move forward. This is completely realistic.
Both sides are exhausted and depleted, any attempt to advance through no-man’s-land is met by a brutal pushback from drones and land mines. For the last two years Russia has been the one doing the pushing, taking horrific losses in men and materiel in return for modest gains; they advanced a total of 240 square kilometers (100 square miles) in March, part of it in Kursk.
The war will end this year with a cease fire (not a peace agreement) very close to the current lines of control. Ukraine has basically accepted this, as Trump acknowledges; Russia has not. After a few more months of pointless slaughter, they will accept reality.
A halt of Russian aggression and withdrawal of all troops.
Historically, this kind of used to be diplomatically managed by creating a scenario in which Russia could save face and present the withdrawal to their own people as a win.
For example, in the Cuban Missile Crisis U.S. diplomats famously recentered the conflict around the embargo in order to allow Russia to remove their missiles without looking like they’d caves to the U.S.
Unfortunately, our current administration doesn’t understand diplomacy 101 so they will never do this.
Nothing. The reality is that liberals and the west don’t care about Ukraine as long as Russia loses lives even at the cost of Ukrainian lives.
“..barely able to slow…”
LOL
What three day war have you been watching for the last 10 years?
Eventually the planet will have to decide if they’re going to continue to let Russia get away with shit because it threatens nuclear war if we don’t let it get away with shit.
Russia is going to go nuclear, or they are going to be bombed back into the stone age and forcefully revoked of thier nuclear arsenal.
Thier threats of as much are getting tired and old
Yeah, realistically, from the beginning, Ukraine is out gunned and out manned.
Realitically ALSO…if Russia took the whole country, they simply do not have any ability to sustain thier occupation. Eastern Ukriane was/is mostly ethnic Russian and seperatists. Except for slaughtering tens of thousands at mariopal, and suffering extreme losses themselves, to make Crimea land-contiguous with Russia…
Russia is never going to be able take and stabilize Ukraine short of some sort of WMD genocide of the ethnic Ukrainians…a genocide they’ve attempted before.
So there’s that. Rusia has, in no uncertain term, bitten more than it can chew.
Realistically, this is about russia keeping eastern ukraine, NOT taking the rest if ukraine
All eyes are on the exclave Kalingrad now. Russia has called up another 160k men…prolly less than 100k will be realized…
Russia wants Kalingrad contiguous with the motherland and that means starting a war with Lithuania and/or Poland.
Poland, Finland, the U.K. and France are ready to rumble. Germany is holding cards close to chest, but I suspect they will join this former NATO alliance when push cones to shove. So are South Korea and Japan
So, at the very least, after firing from the Black Sea today, a naval blockade of all Russian ports, east and west, particularly Kalingad, is now in the mix. It remains to be seen whose side the U.S., the world’s biggest navy and airforce, is going to be on. The U.K. France, Poland, Baltics though, could fucking steam roll into Moscow if they wanted to. …
Shit….thier own mercanaries almost did as much not to long ago.
This isn’t the do something or die like the genocidal Nazi case was.
The Russian people don’t have a heart in it like they did when they were the communism revolutionary case. They are a dilapitaded and desheviled shadow of thier former soviet might.
Give them vodka and some pork, and you can walk into moscow without much of a fight.
The only thing that gives the west pause are Russian nuclear subs …like the U boats of WW2. Like the U-boats of WW2…we will hunt them and eventually sink them, particularly if the U.S. joins the naval fight. But the U.K., Australia, and Japan could get it done without the U.S.
They have 63 subs, 22 of which are deisel zombies, only 14 of the nuclear subs are attack subs that can engage in litoral operations…they are up against mines, hundreds of anti sub aircraft, and thousands of small ASW boats which aren’t condusive to wasting torpedoes on.
For comparison…The Nazis had about 1000 U boats. Allied forces sank 800. Granted, we’re talking about 40 some subs with ICBMs now. We need to find them, and sink them.
Russia is a petulent toddler stumbling around with a live hand grenade. Eventually the adults in the room are going to have to do something about it
Hold on until Putin dies. A new regime will likely want better relations with the rest of the world and may be willing to give back everything other than the Crimea to get it.
No, fellow Westerners, the goal “sign a pEaCE treaty with Russia(which Russia wouldn’t keep anyway), allowing them recover from war, attack in 5 years and finish Ukraine once and forever” can be goal for you, but not for us, Ukrainians. Especially now, when situation is much better than 3 years ago. We want to survive and will continue to fight. Sorry for inconveniences that are brought by our bloody events to your news feeds
If we were serious about supporting Ukraine, then regime change in Russia would be the goal. If we could destabilize Russia’s government to the point that democratic leaders could emerge, we would discover if the Russian people are finally ready to living in a democracy. Of course, this would also involve absolute destruction of the oligarchy.
Uncertainty on the reaction of some of Russia’s semi-autonomous regions, with a focus on the Republic of Dagestan and the Chechen Republic. Would fighting for total sovereignty once again emerge?
Regime change would also impact Russia’s alliance with Iran, which would have an impact on, to what degree I don’t know, Iran’s funding of various terrorists organizations. Would a weakened Iran provoke Saudi Arabia to take steps to further weaken Iran?
Another question: Would regime change in Russia provoke China to take control of some parts of western Russia?
Why would we push for regime change? To eliminate Russia as an enemy, leaving us to focus on countering potential Chinese aggression in the South Pacific.
Watching Russia fall would give China pause in its aggressive posturing. With most Russian military equipment failing to perform as advertised, with the dominance of Western military equipment, China is most certainly reconsidering how effective its military would be against first world nations.
The problem is that almost any currently conceivable diplomatic resolution amounts to a win for Russia. And a win for Russia emboldens them to keep on winning. A temporary cessation of hostilities benefits Russia more than Ukraine because Russian can regroup faster.
Ukraine either has to push Russia back to 2020 (or ideally 2013) borders or it will eventually end as a sovereign nation. Not tomorrow. Or this year, but whenever Russia feels they can finish the job. A ceasefire, or whatever you call a worthless treaty with worthless security guarantees, may prolong this outcome but it makes it all the more certain.
Sigh.
The realistic goal is for Russia to fuck off and return Ukraine to Ukraine.
Your information is bad and your assumptions suck.
Russia is currently borrowing troops and ammo from North Fucking Korea. It is NOT going well for Russia. Their economy is shit, Putin’s 72 and not in the best of health. Ukraine is making steps toward NATO membership.
Ukraine has already HAD numerous cease fires. They all get broken by Russia. A cease fire isn’t shit.
That whole “they’ve lost a lot of men” BS is just propaganda BS. That’s not for you or me to decide. That’s for Ukraine to decide.
And, what, women can’t build stuff or own/run businesses?
The country has NOT been utterly decimated, by the actual definition OR the popular vernacular definition, and they do NOT have to rebuild everything from the ground up. Your information is bad, and you should feel bad for parroting Russian propaganda.
Ukraine has 38 million people. They’ve lost about 46,000 soldiers, more wounded. They’re not running out of able bodied men. Again, women can do stuff too…. but even if they can’t, you REALLY should have been able to google some basic stats before letting that absolutely ridiculous BS into your head.
You should feel bad. You didn’t google before letting ideas into your head and you’re spreading Russian talking points. Shame on you.
Pre 2022 borders. Full Nato membership. An internationally monitored referendum on independence for Luhansk and Donetsk.
In my opinion there is no end in sight.
The problem is that there is very little incentive for either side to pursue peace currently. Any long term ceasefire or peace agreement will inherently be a net gain for one side, and a loss for the other. Neither side will be willing to sign any agreement that they view as a net negative for themselves.
Ukraine has no reason to sign a peace agreement that allows for Russia to prepare for round 2 of war. And likewise, any agreement that doesn’t restrict Ukraine’s military capabilities will likely be unacceptable to Russia.
Neither side appears to be close to a full military collapse. They will keep fighting, until one side is facing enough pressure to fold and justify taking the loss.
I’m hyper-focusing on the word “realistic,” as these outcome are NOT what I want.
End goal 1: Ukraine surrenders conquered territory to Russia, capitulates to other Russian demands (no EU, no NATO, no strong military), and has no third party security guarantees.
End goal 2: This becomes an entrenched, protracted conflict where Russia, now in a wartime economy, can’t end the war. Ukraine continues trying to hold the lines while America abandons the effort and Europe boasts about stepping up to help Ukraine while dragging their feet to actually get it done.
Those two are the most realistic imo. However, Trump has an extremely low IQ and is therefore unpredictable. He might get word of a private meeting where Putin said Trump’s brain is smaller than his hands and decide to send American soldiers into Ukraine. So idk.
Recovery of all occupied land including the Crimea, reparations to rebuild industry and infrastructure, trial and execution of Putin and his entire general staff.
We need to support Ukraine as much as we can. Strongarming Ukraine into a bad peace deal is stupid for multiple reasons. One, Russia said any deal with them forfeiting Luhansk and Donetsk is an automatic deal breaker. So these peace talks are flawed to begin with. Not to mention Russia immediately violated their cease fire. They don’t care about agreements.
Next, those regions are Ukraine’s concentrated source of industry, minerals, iron, steel, and oil which we import. If Russia has it, that’s a huge loss on us geopolitically. While they’re increasing their economic influence / self sustainability, we are pushing our Allies away and in turn strengthening the Russia China alliance.
Finally: it’s at NO human cost to us to support them. We have a close to trillion dollar budget on military. Outside of research, we don’t use it for anything. We should allocate that budget to support Ukraine, which is in our best interest. (Did everyone forget that the USSR ended and Ukraine became independence in 1991?!)